Could we be rushing back to the office too soon with the Delta variant?

In the US (and the UK) companies are gradually encouraging employees to stop remote working and return to the office. But with the Delta variant widespread, could this be too soon?

With vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant dropping to 39%, it is absurd to pursue a normal office return. Make no mistake about the danger: the Delta surge forecast to grow much worse in the next few months. Indeed, the CDC is asking vaccinated people to wear masks and moving toward recommending booster shots.

Yet many large companies and mid-size firms, along with the federal government, are forcing employees who successfully worked from home during the height of the pandemic to return to the office. Over a third have already returned and most of the rest are slated to return by the end of summer or early-mid Fall, when the schools will reopen and Delta cases will soar.

Why are the government and businesses putting employees’ health at risk?

Why is the federal government, and household name companies – Apple, Xerox, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, American International Group, and Abbott Laboratories – putting the health of their employees at serious risk? And why are they practically guaranteeing mass employee flight as part of the Great Resignation prompted by pressure to return to the office? 

After all, in-depth surveys of employee preferences on returning to the office – even before the Delta surge – showed that about half were willing to quit if not given their preferred work arrangements. The surveys revealed a quarter to a third of employees wanted full-time remote work, while over half wanted a hybrid schedule of a day or two in the office. 

Many already quit due to employer plans to force them back to the office. Fears over the Delta surge will undoubtedly prompt even more to quit rather than risk their health due to breakthrough infections.

Employers are blinded by cognitive biases

The reason that so many large employers fail to listen to the concerns of employees, whether about their work preferences or their health, stems from the wishful thinking of dangerous judgment errors called cognitive biases. These mental blindspots lead to poor strategic and financial decision-making when evaluating options. They cause leaders to go with their gut and follow their personal preferences instead of relying on best practices on returning to the office.

The biggest threat in underestimating the Delta surge comes from the normalcy bias. This dangerous judgment error leads us to underestimate the likelihood and impact of disruptive events. 

Consider that we already had clear evidence of US Covid cases caused by Delta beginning to surge in early June. We also had clear evidence already in May of a Delta-caused explosion of cases in countries with higher rates of vaccination than in the US, such as the UK and Israel

The planning fallacy causes leaders to make too optimistic plans

Big employers pride themselves on making data-driven decisions. They had the data: it was right under their noses. And they didn’t have the excuse of not knowing about the danger of an explosive growth in COVID cases. Yet despite the clear and present danger of Delta, they insisted on forcing their employees back to the office.

Another major mental blindspot at play, the planning fallacy, causes leaders to make overly optimistic plans and refuse to change them despite new evidence showing their folly. After all, changing your plans implies that you got them wrong in the first place. Weak leaders frequently refuse to admit they are mistaken and acknowledge the need to change their plans. By contrast, strong leaders show the courage of changing their minds when new evidence shows a need to pivot.

Fortunately, a small number of organizations are showing the courage to revise their plans. Yet many of these revisions are band-aids rather than true pivots. 

Apple, for instance, delayed the return to the office from September to October. Yet this one-month delay shows that Apple just doesn’t get it. Not only is the Delta variant slated to peak in October, but there’s a bigger issue at hand. Similarly, the federal government is calling for its employees to be vaccinated or face regular COVID resting.

The reality is that vaccine immunity wanes

Apple and the other large employers forcing employees back to the office need to face the reality that vaccine immunity wanes in a few months. At the same time, new variants are emerging, such as Delta Plus, which might be even worse than the Delta variant. Vaccine mandates aren’t going to cut it, nor are temporary delays.

Delta is a short-term issue with a long-term tail of multiple similar scenarios. Not facing this patently obvious unpleasant reality stems from a cognitive bias scholars call the ostrich effect, after the mythical notion that ostriches bury their heads in the sand when facing danger. Research suggests that denying negative reality is a top cause of CEOs getting fired, cited by 23% members of Boards of Directors that terminated their CEOs.

Overcoming normalcy bias, planning fallacy, and the ostrich effect in the return to the office requires relying on research-based best practices. That means a mainly-hybrid model of a day or two in the office for most employees, who should be able to move easily to full-time remote work when needed.

A substantial minority of employees should work full-time remotely, if they wish to do so and demonstrate effectiveness. This best-practice setup maximizes the benefits of in-office collaboration for those employees who benefit from it most, while retaining top talent that would leave if not permitted full-time remote work, and creates a company culture, systems, and processes that facilitate full-time remote work when needed for all employees.

Dr. Gleb Tsipursky is on a mission to protect leaders from dangerous judgment errors known as cognitive biases by developing the most effective decision-making strategies. 

A best-selling author, his new book is Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters.

His expertise comes from over 20 years of consulting,coaching, and speaking and training as the CEO of Disaster Avoidance Experts. It also comes from over 15 years in academia as a cognitive neuroscientist and behavioral economist with dozens of peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals.

You can register for his Wise Decision Maker Course.

Photo by Maxime